How is SUPER El Niño impacting this NORTH AMERICAN 26/27 winter?
A 'super El Niño' has been brewing in the pacific with extreme temperatures forecast, what does this mean for this ski season?
23 OCTOBER 2026 · 2 MIN READ
All journal entries on LAYERS are written by humans, not AI.
With the start of the Northern Hemisphere’s 26/27 season just a few weeks away, skiers and snowboarders are gearing up to get back on the slopes. However, meteorologists are forecasting, with near 100% certainty, an extremely strong El Niño this season, with some saying it has the potential to be the strongest ever recorded. In this article, we’ll discuss what El Niño is, how it effects winter, and which areas are likely to be affected the most.
What is El Niño?
El Niño, the opposite of La Niña, is a natural phenomenon that occurs when sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean are significantly above average, along with higher-than-normal air pressure over the western Pacific. The Pacific typically swings between El Niño and La Niña every two to seven years, and we can experience multiple consecutive years of either state, like the “triple-dip” La Niña that contributed to the record-breaking 22/23 season.
El Niño visible in the east Pacific - NOAA
How will this effect the ski season?
The truth is, there’s no definite answer. Historically, the data shows that the northern US, Pacific Northwest and Canadian Rockies tend to experience less moisture (snowfall) and warmer temperatures than usual, whereas the American Southwest and South tend to experience cooler, wetter winters. Meteorologists much smarter than me have predicted that northern resorts may be in for a warmer start to the season with less-than-average snowfall overall, and a more promising season than usual for the south. However, we frequently see exceptions to this pattern. During the 2015/16 “super El Niño”, Whistler Blackcomb received 435" of snow, well above its average of 310". Fernie, Big White and Big Sky all recorded above-average snowfall that season too, despite being in the north.
Essentially, if you live in the north, don’t panic! Predictions are only predictions, and just like every other season, we really don’t know what Mother Nature will deliver until it’s already happened.
Key Takeaways
NOAA predicts with near 100% certainty that the 26/27 season will be under “super” El Niño conditions.
Historically, northern resorts receive slightly less-than-average snowfall, while southern resorts receive slightly above average.
There’s no need to panic if you’re already committed to skiing in the north. Plenty of northern resorts have good seasons even under El Niño, particularly those at higher elevations. If you can keep your plans flexible and hold off on booking until early-season reports come in, you’ll give yourself the best shot at an epic winter!
Here is NOAA's latest outlook into El Niño (19th October, 2026)
Credit to Petr Kratochvil @ PublicDomainPictures.net for the provided banner picture.